Evaluation on Residential Energy Efficiency Programs Using the City-Scale End-Use Simulation Model

In this paper, energy conservation policies are evaluated by a model, which simulates city-level energy consumption in the residential sector whilst considering the diversity of household and building types. In this model, all households in the city are classified by household and building type into 460 categories. The energy consumption for each household category is simulated by the energy use schedule, hot water supply, and heating and cooling models. Since the energy use of each appliance is simulated respectively every five minutes, this model can not only evaluate the energy saving measures from improving building and appliances, but also the measures by changing occupant activities. In this paper, the model is applied to Osaka City, Japan, where the present amount of energy consumption is estimated and compared with the statistical value. Simulated energy consumption is smaller than the statistical value; one of the reasons for this is that the simulation does not take into consideration unreasonable energy use, e.g., leaving appliances switched-on while the room is unoccupied. The electricity load curve of the residential sector in the city is also simulated. In the last part of this paper, various types of energy conservation measures stated in the Japanese “New Climate Change Policy Program” are simulated and each measure is evaluated quantitatively. The results indicate that the heat insulation standard and energy efficiency standard for home electrical appliances will greatly impact energy conservation in the residential sector.